Recent polls have been predicting the possibility of Brexit happening. As of now, i personally don't think Brexit will happen due the following reasons:
1. The polls are done on a very small sample (about 1000) hence may not reflect the larger population. I dont think Scotland and Northern Ireland are adequately represented in these polls. Population wise Scotland and Norther Ireland make about 11% of population of UK. Even with modest 7% vote towards the 'Stay' from Scoland (i.e 70% of Scotland voting to Stay in EU). The current projected Leave EU lead will be nullified. Yes. Scots will the help in preserving EU membership of Britain.
2. Going against the status quo (i.e leaving the EU) needs lot more conviction. A reasonable number of people who are currenly in the border of 'Leave EU" will opt to continue the status quo. I have pesonally found 2 instances where these 2 people decided to go for 'Stay in EU' ( i.e changing from their earlier view before the postal vote).
3. The Stock markets are still not factoring in the possibility of Briexit. Bookies also have greated accuracy in predicting. As per the bookies the odds are still very much towards the 'Stay in EU" campaign. As per bookies percentage terms the probability of Brexit is only about 33%.
As of now, I think the actually 'Leave' camp will get around 40% vote share in the referendum.
There is also an interesting prespective that the referendum can be rejected by the Westminister parliament.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120
References:
1. The following page tracks the brexit poll outcomes
https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
2. Bookies odds checker
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
1 comment:
As I anticipated,Scotland did vote largely towards Staying in EU. I was anticipating 70%. The actual results were 63% for staying in EU. Not bad.
But as I feared the the opinion polls were on a smaller sample and the depth of support for the Leave EU campaign was much larger most of the opinion polls had predicted.
We are heading towards a challenging and interesting times.
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