(This is the letter that I wrote to the ministers of civil aviation, defense, and external affairs of India. Copied Indian commission in London and Indian Embassy in Scotland. Hopefully, someone relevant will read it and get something out of it. )
Vanakkam & Namaste,
I am originally from Chennai but I have been living outside India for almost half of my life (initially in the US and now in Scotland). Following global news and current affairs has been my hobby since school age.
Today, I read the news that Infosys has decided to close its operations in Russia due to western pressure. I understand why Infosys is doing it, but it is a shame that an Indian company like Infosys is succumbing to western pressure when all it is doing is supporting civilian projects.
The Geopolitical situation created by the Russia - Ukraine conflict is a huge opportunity for India. It's a once-in-a-century opportunity. But unfortunately, I am not seeing any big strategic actions from the Indian Government. Please don't mistake me, I am saying this with very good intent.
From the Media, I came to know that during the recent visit Russian foreign minister Lavrov said something like this “Russia is Ready To Discuss If India Wants To Buy Anything”. But it looks like on the Indian side the discussions were around how India can buy some cheap oil and how to pay for it. Really. Is this the best that the descendants of Chanakya and Thiruvalluar can come up with?
I am not underestimating the importance of oil imports for India, oil shock is big for any economy. We need an urgent tactical solution. But the current opportunity is so big that India needs to have strategic thinking to talk about longer-term bigger bargains now.
If India has any interest in becoming a world leader it should start thinking and acting big. As nationalist Tamil poet Bharathi Said “பெரிதினும் பெரிது கேள்” (meaning “don't just settle for big ask for bigger”)
In my not-so-humble view :-), India should have asked for something bigger like the following:
Setup the assembly line for a civilian aircraft model in India with a Russian partnership.
Collaborate with Russia on building the next International Space Station.
The above are just examples of Long term strategic initiatives which will fall outside sanctions. These are high-value manufacturing and technology areas that will put India in the select group of top 4-5 countries in the world. I will explain each of the above projects in 10 sentences in the appendix.
I am not trying to sell anything. I will not get any benefit if India and Russia go ahead with the above projects. I am just a regular guy who is tired of hearing “Bharat becoming Vishwa Guru” for the last 25 years, whatever that means. I want to see some real leadership in action. India should start behaving like a stronger country if it is really interested in any serious role in geopolitics.
Appendix:
1: Setup the assembly line for a civilian aircraft model in India with a Russian partnership.
HAL has been working hard to build a 20-seater Civil Aircraft for the last several years. If India wants to move up the value chain then Civilian Aircraft manufacturing partnering with Russia is a great strategy. Aircraft building is a complex manufacturing process always spread across different countries. Russia has great experience in running complex aircraft manufacturing assembly lines across several Soviet nations of the USSR for several years. After the collapse of the USSR, the Russian Civil Aircraft manufacturing industry also collapsed. Russia is working hard to bring it back. Reviving High-end manufacturing is very hard, and it will get only harder for Russia to revive it moving forward under sanctions. So there will be great synergy from the Russian side. This will fit very nicely with the “Make in India” initiative. Setting up an aircraft assembly line is a 10-year project. Once set up, that assembly line will run for the next 30-40 years.
2: Collaborate with Russia on building the next International Space Station (ISS).
Even before the current Ukraine conflict, Russia had already announced that it wants to move away from the International Space station. Those who follow space tech closely will know that the ISS would not have come into existence without Russia. The US, after spending several billion on its own space station, failed to produce any meaningful progress. At that time, USSR had several space stations, sputnik being just one of them. Then the Soviet Union collapsed and the US wanted to make use of Soviet space expertise,(the real truth is that the US did not have the capability to build a space station on its own at that time), and hence the ISS collaboration to include Russia was born. Today’s situation is very similar. If you talk to ISRO they will give a long laundry list of shopping items, you can just cherry-pick the ones that will withstand sanctions scrutiny in the West.
Closing comments:
When the “Arab Spring” happened then British Prime minister David Cameron was touring the troubled countries selling weapons to dictators (One of Britain's major exports). The moral is “when there is trouble in any part of the world then the world's major powers go on a business trip / do the shopping”. If India wants to be a global power, where is the shopping cart now?
In the words of Winston Churchill “Never let a good crisis go to waste”. I know the BJP leadership is nationalist in nature and I hope that they will not let the global geopolitical opportunity go to waste for Bharata Varsh.
Remember “பெரிதினும் பெரிது கேள்” by Subramanya Bharathi
(meaning “don't just settle for big ask for bigger”)
Vande Mataram.
