Thursday, October 24, 2013

History is happening. It will be called Grangemouth moment


A letter to Scottish First minister:

Dear Alex Salmond,
Let me first introduce myself. My name is Arul Krishna moorthy. I migrated to Scotland from India about 5 years ago. I work for an investment management company &  live in Edinburgh with my family. I am one of your well-wishers and supporter of an Independent Scotland.
 Like many of us, I am also sad due to the decision of Ineos’s decision to shut down the Grangemouth petrochemical plant. I understand that the future of Grangemouth refinery is also uncertain.
Grangemouth is Scotland’s most important Industrial complex; I have head estimates that more than 10 thousand indirect jobs depend on it. It’s very important to Scotland especially the central Scotland. We don’t want that place to be turning into another deprived area like some ‘former’ mining community.
The situation does appears to very grave, I also see this as an historic opportunity to the ‘Yes’ Campaign especially the SNP.  Yes. An opportunity that can shape the history, the history of Independent Scotland.
If SNP gets this issue right under your leadership, and brings about to an amicable solution to the crisis, it has potential to lead the ‘Yes’ campaign to victory.
I would recommend the following strategy. Nationalization should not be the first choice. If we do that we will be creating a liability rather than an asset for the future generation.
Start looking out for potential bidders. You may have even have to look beyond Europe for potential bidders.  May be you should take on the Chinese supported Ineos with some Indian or Russian oil oligarch.  There are people who can turn around failing businesses in a successful and efficient one.
Take the example of Jaguar Land Rover, it was acquired by the Indian company Tata motors at the depth of recession.  The automakers were cutting down production and shutting down plants.  The company came with the promise of not closing any plants.  The company is a great turnaround story.   They are one of the largest and a consistent employer in the last 5 years.  The employees of Jaguar Land rover are happier and more secure than ever.
The Tatas does not have experience with petroleum; Reliance is a better fit because of the background in petro-chemical industry. Reliance Industries runs the world’s largest refinery at Jam Nagar in India.
 We need to understand that 'Its not that case Ineos is not interested in the plan when it is ready to commit £ 250 Million' additional capital.  Its just playing hardball in return expecting more concessions. Bringing in potential bidders will strengthen the Government stand at negotiation table with Ineos.
If these potential bidders become owners then they can be promised small short-term governmental help but larger longer term incentives to get their long term commitment in the area.
Additionally, I would recommend that you send your best team in the cabinet (& party) to be there in the impacted community at this hour. The people there should know that your team is  there for them, when they need them. 
Neither nationalization nor bailout (similar to the one for banks) is needed now. A good potential investor, who can turn around the company, is what we need.  
For Robert Bruce ‘battle of Bannockburn’ was major turning point, it was also turning point in the History of Scotland.  It made the Scotland independent from England.  It’s not mere co-incidence that Bannockburn is located near Grangemouth.
I think the current moment is like ‘Battle of Bannockburn’, it can change the course of the campaign and the future of Scotland.  As many would agree, the Grangemouth victory is needed before the ‘Yes’ vote victory in the referendum.