Sunday, July 05, 2015

Greece: Amazing politics and Interesting times

One of the key lessons in negotiations is 'you will get the best deal only if you are ready to walk away'.

There was significant amount of  'fear mongering' similar to the levels seen in the Scottish elections last year.

Still the Greece has taken the brave step of getting ready to walk away. May be from Euro zone or may be even from European Union. If at all the Greece will get any better deal it will be now or never. I personally don't think the Greek debt will be written off unless the Greece defaults.  It may be very difficult times for the Greeks, especially for the next few weeks.

Greece has become the first country from the Europe to default after it defaulted on 1.5 billion Euros to IMF last week. It is has another 3.5 billion Euros of ECB payment coming on in 2 weeks.
It is said being said that the Greek banks will run out of money in the next 48 hours unless ELA levels increased by the ECB.

Greece may not be the last country in Europe to default. Many more will follow.  I have written in the past about the unsustainable sovereign debt levels http://4mythoughts.blogspot.co.uk/2009/05/are-rich-countries-really-rich.html.  Holding interest rates artificially near zero is like Sharia finance (Sharia Finance is absurd because it negates the key concept of  'Time value of Money' that is a one of the corner stones of finance).

Is it the beginning of end of the debt fueled 'Capitalism' that considers 'saving as sin and spending a virtue'.   Time will tell the answer.