Friday, June 20, 2014

Is Winston Churchill a racist?

Today, I got a interesting Facebook forward on the role of British in the infamous 'Bengal Famine'. It had some quotes of Winston Churchill.

Some of his quotes on India  in the article are :
I hate Indians. They are a beastly people with a beastly religion.
- In conversation to Leo Amery, Secretary of State for India. This quotation is widely cited as written in "a letter to Leo Amery"
Indians 'Breed like Rabbits'.
The above comments were disturbing to me and that made me to wonder whether 'Winston Churchill is a racist’? 

I was trying hard to not judge  him by the above quotes alone, because  politicians are often mis-quoted. I continued to read bit more over the Internet about Churchill, I came across the following quotes:
It is alarming and nauseating to see Mr Gandhi, a seditious Middle Temple lawyer, now posing as a fakir of a type well known in the east, striding half naked up the steps of the viceregal palace, while he is still organising and conducting a campaign of civil disobedience, to parlay on equal terms with the representative of the Emperor-King.
-          Commenting on Gandhi's meeting with the Viceroy of India, 1931

I do not admit... that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America, or the black people of Australia... by the fact that a stronger race, a higher grade race... has come in and taken its place.
-          Churchill to Palestine Royal Commission, 1937

The above 2 comments clearly shows his 'superiority' attitude.  

 My initial views on Churchill were too naive. All I knew was that he was British prime minister of the UK during the troubled period  is called 'Second World War'. I have seen few the old video and audio clippings of his speeches. What I did not know is that he is prolific writer and was awarded noble prize for his writing, especially, for his work on Second World War.

If you want to read Winston Churchill online (www.winstonchurchill.org ) is a good place to start. It’s interesting to see that he above centre is based in the U.S.

Here is my summary of his speech 'Our Duty in India':
Churchill views the Indian National Freedom movement as 'Brahmin oligarchy'. [I have heard similar views in communist writings in India (what many refer as 'vomiting' of western views in India), maybe this is their source]  He disapproves Gandhi's leadership. 
He ridicules Nehru as a benefactor of British Empire with the following quote
'Already Nehru, his young rival in the Indian Congress, is preparing to supersede him the moment that he has squeezed his last drop from the British lemon.'
For many of you,  who are already aware that Nehru was more British by his upbringing than Indian, the above comment will not be a surprise. 
 In his Churchill's own words India was easier to administer.
'Do not be disquieted by exaggerations of the difficulty of maintaining order in India which are spread about for interested motives by the Socialist ministers and their allies. In the whole of the disturbances of the last year - except on the frontier - scarcely a British soldier has been required. Very few people have been killed or severely wounded in the rioting'.
He clearly supports the Christian Evangelisation in India  and it will be impacted if the British leaves India.
'There are also nearly five million Indian Christians in India, a large proportion of whom can read and write, and some of whom have shown themselves exceptionally gifted. It will be a sorry day when the arm of Britain can no longer offer them the protection of an equal law.'

Here are my favorite quotes from his speech on 'Our Duty in India':
'The Hindus do not possess among their many virtues that of being a fighting race. The whole south of India is peopled with races deserving all earnest solicitude and regard, but incapable of self-defence. It is in the north alone that the fighting races dwell. '

'there dwell in India seventy millions of Moslems, a race of far greater physical vigour and fierceness, armed with a religion which lends itself only too readily to war and conquest. While the Hindu elaborates his argument, the Moslem sharpens his sword. '

The  question may still linger in your mind that 'Is Winston Churchill a racist'? The following incidents and statement from Leo Amery might throw some light.
During the infamous Bengal Famine, Leo Amery then Secretary of State for India and Burma and Viceroy of India, Wavell, tries had to convince Winston Churchill to get some food supply to India.  Churchill responded with a telegram to Wavell asking, "if food was so scarce, why Gandhi hadn't died yet."   The fact that about 4 million people died in the Bengal Famine will show how insensitive Churchill had been on the food supply to India at critical juncture. 


"Naturally I lost patience," Amery records, "and couldn't help telling him that I didn't see much difference between his outlook and Hitler's, which annoyed him no little."

References:
1. The facebook forward that i received on Bengal Famine
2. Article with similar view on the Bengal famine in the Telegraph:
3. Churchill's Empire - book critical of Churchill
4. There is a book review of the 'Churchill Empire' defending the Churchill.


Monday, April 14, 2014

AAP – The party is not revolutionary not even a new experiment.

As an active social worker (a swayamsevak) and a social observer for more than half of my life now, I have been part of election campaigns before.  My views here are not the views of a political commentator / an academic, but it’s the view of a normal social worker from the normal middle class background who has experience in working in the streets.
After the Delhi elections, some of my friends from Bharat, were surprised with of AAP winning so many seats and were wondering whether it’s a beginning of a new type of Indian politics. My humble response to them was the path taken by AAP is nothing new (or revolutionary) and it will not work in the long term, even if AAP managed to form a government in Delhi. (Nothing has changed in the last few months that will force me to change the above view.  AAP is progressing ! exactly as i anticipated. )

The following reasons for making the above statement.

1.       Political change will not bring about social reform.
Corruption is not a problem only at the government level.  It has pervaded all walks of national life.  Unfortunately the common man is also corrupt.  There was a similar view resonated in a Tamil weekly magazine by a retired IAS officer, who said people who are running AAP does not know how corrupt and selfish the common man has become now-a-days.  
Let me give a small example to drive home this point. Many of us would have stood in a queue in railway stations for getting tickets, have we not seen people who walk to the front of the  line asking people in the front of the line to get tickets for them as they don’t want to stand in the queue.  These are common people too. I am proud to say that I have fought with some of them in railway stations for their unfair selfish behaviour; unfortunately there is large number of them.   The point that I am trying to make here is ‘common man’ is not a qualification.
Coming from political family is not a qualification. Similarly being a common man is not a qualification for working for society.  Doing work for the society means we need people with some basic qualities (Love for the our samaj - i.e community, integrity in Character, a heart that can cry for others, a humble head, good team building skills and most importantly the ability to put organization above oneself - all the time).  People with those attributes don’t jump from sky and they are made in our neighborhoods and they rise up to become our leaders. The social movements that the produce such leaders bring about social change and not just a mere change in government. 

2.       Political change without adequate social reform will not be sustainable even if the political change happens.

We the people of Tamil Nadu over throw the Congress party in 1967. Mr Karunanidhi as per his own biography ( Nenjukku Nedhi – in Tamil meaning Justice for the heart) started his public life without another pair of cloths to change.  (Unlike Mr Arvind  Kejriwal whose family holidays in Singapore). Mr Karunanidhi started the political carrier from such humble background and we the people of Tamil Nadu elected such a common man and his party  to power (many of them were college students when winning elections).
Today his family(s) J  is one of the richest families in Asia or even may be in the world. (The additional s family is not a mistake as Mr Karunanidhi is known to be married 3 times with 2 wives still alive). After about 50 years of Dravidian party rule, Tamil Nadu is one of the backward states today (when compared to Gujarat) with poor roads, poor water supply and poor state of electricity supply just like many other part of Bharat.
Something similar happened in Assam. The students there decided to replace the government and succeeded (Assam Gana Parishad - AGP in short). The AGP contested the State Assembly elections held in December 1985 and swept the polls by winning 67 of the 126 seats apart from capturing seven of the 14 Lok Sabha (Parliament) seats, and formed the Government of Assam.  Unfortunately it did not result in any major development of the state of Assam nor did the infiltration from Bangladeshis into Assam stopped (one of the key points that AGP fought for – i.e. to end Bangladeshi Muslim infiltration)



3.   Particularly in the case of AAP that was born out of the India against Corruption movement
·        Most of the people who were part of the Anti corruption movement are not supporting AAP. (People like Sri Anna Hazare, Sri Baba Ramdev and  Smt. Kiran Bedi )
Some of them are even against AAP. Smt Kiran Bedi has openly come forwarded and conveyed her support for Sri Narendra Modi in the National election.
·        AAP missed the golden opportunity: They were given chance to form the Delhi government but resigned on their own in less than 2 months.
·         A party with only a negative campaign that every other political party is bad will be become another bad political party. I can already see it in their behaviour
o   their anti-India Statements on Kashmir,
o   Muslim appeasement  by appealing to their community separately asking them to vote from them
o     Only Muslim AAP candidates contesting  in Muslim majority constituencies. (i.e. they are also playing the communal card like Congress)


·        AAP is another communist party with a new name. This is no secret about it and you can see it evidently in their calls to ask Maoists to join their party, we have communists in different flavours CPI (alphabets A to Z in brackets). Since there is a communist party almost on every capital letter after CPI, (instead of trying out CPI with lower case alphabet extensions) they might have wanted to try out a new name.  As Sri Subramanian Swamy quoted ‘AAP will become a text book study for many of our communist comrades’ on how to launch a communist party into main stream politics.

·         AAP- A party hyped by the media.  Lot of journalists have been part of the AAP (typically from the English press- many of them left  leaning). Some of them have been rewarded with seats in the National elections.  They can write whatever they want in their own respective media spear of influence  but winning elections needs different set of skills.

·         Most importantly, the following is the demography the supports AAP:
o   Smaller section of the educated middle class that still carry the ‘secular’ luggage.      These ‘secular luggage’ carriers are afraid to support BJP due to the so-called ‘unsecular’ stigma associated with it. (I used to carry that luggage too, then I decided to drop it and move on after understanding the social fabric of the nation –i.e.  India is secular only because it’s a Hindu nation. )
o     Minorities – who have been always tactical voters- generally voting for alternatives to BJP. Especially for Muslims  -supporting AAP willl makes them appear less communal! than Muslims supporting Akbaruddin Owaisi [from All India Majlis-e Ittihad al-Muslimin party].   Please don't feel bad, if you can’t pronounce that party name  J

The above constituents will not dent the BJP vote share, what you will see in the election results in 2014  is the erosion of vote share of congress and the ‘secular’ members of the ‘imaginary’ third front.

This will be the last election that AAP will be talked about in this large scale. In the next election they will be part of the long list of losers. 





Thursday, January 30, 2014

Response to Financial Times article title 'Investors put too much faith on Modi turn around'

hi David,

This letter is in response to the Financial Times article title 'Investors put too much faith on Modi turn around' on Financial Times dated January 30th 2014.
Obviously, you seemed to get your view from news from typical English medium of press.  Usually that news is tilted towards the left (you can read communist).
They try to judge Modi by the worst apprehensions of Critics,  Kejriwal (AAP leader &  Delhi chief minister) by his intensions and Rahul ( the congress hopeful) by the looks'. They don’t judge none of them by their deeds.
You need to understand that this English medium press does not reflect the view of the mainstream electorate.
Here are some of the myths that you have carried in your article. 
You are mentioning about the 'alleged development of Gujarat'.  It’s not alleged. It’s real. Out of the many achievements of Modi, two are outstanding: they are uninterrupted electricity and water supply in Gujarat.  When rest of India was growing at 9%, Gujarat was growing on separeate faster track with 13% GDP.
There have been studies by university academics who have conducted the human resource index measurements also (grudgingly - because of leftist  orientation) accept the overall improvement in the living conditions of the people. 
BJP is not a one man ( or one woman) controlled party, it has its own think tank, that will guide the economic policies.  Modi will provide the necessary leadership.
The hype about AAP is unjustified. BJP is a national party with pan-India presence. In the state elections held less than 2 months ago, BJP won 5 out of 6 states. Even in Delhi BJP was the single largest party. 
The English medium press still keeps praising the number 2 party i.e AAP as if it’s a big show stopper. It would be very surprising if AAP wins more than 10 parliamentary seats. 

I do agree with the tile of your article 'Investors put too much faith on Modi turn around'. Its because BJP is business friendly in its policies. 

Response to the Financial Times Editorial column on 10th January, 2014 titled 'Modern India and Medieval values'


This letter is in response to the Financial Times Editorial column on 10th  January, 2014 titled 'Modern India and Medieval values'.  The article merely mentions the heavy handed behaviour of the U.S treatment of an Indian diplomat, where as it sees the reciprocation of India in poor light. 

You need to understand that the Indian public opinion, not just in India but even Indians abroad are delighted to see such strong response from India. 
Let me tell how U.S and the West (in general) behaves when their citizens violate the law when they are abroad.  Few months ago 2 Italian marines killed 2 Indian fisherman in the Indian waters ( they were contracted for security of an oil tanker). They got arrested lawfully on Indian soil for their crime . The accused had fully access to Italian council officials.  They were released on bail with assurance from Italian Embassy.  
The 2 accused Italian marines fled the country saying that they had out-of-court settlement with the victim's family. The high-court of Kerala got furious.  Indian government had to summon Italian Ambassador and warn them of this shameful behaviour.
Last year when a American citizen killed 2 people in Pakistan. The U.S government paid money and brought it back home without any court proceedings. If U.S respects law so much, why cant it let the U.S national face the court proceedings in Pakistan. Its all hipocracy. This a consistent behaviour of the west. It belittles the judiciary system in the east. 
It does not matter even if the Indian Diplomat was wrong. Its a petty offence, compared to the 2 other offences that I mentioned earlier, where people got killed and their western government stood for their citizens.

I was laughing out loud when I read the line 'India does not minimum wage' in the article.  Yes. India does not have minimum wage because Indians don't middle with markets.  My setting minimum wage, the west actually determines how much the haircut should cost.  In reality that's what it translates to. 
Living conditions of people of relative to the overall living conditions in a society.  If you stop the benefit system here then  the living conditions of those people live on them also will be different.  So stop prescribing your problems as solutions to others. 

We Indians are delighted to see India throwing 'the books of rules' on U.S face.  
Diplomacy  is a two way process. You will be treated the way you treat others.

(letter for sent via email on 30th Jan 2014: still response awaited. )

Thursday, October 24, 2013

History is happening. It will be called Grangemouth moment


A letter to Scottish First minister:

Dear Alex Salmond,
Let me first introduce myself. My name is Arul Krishna moorthy. I migrated to Scotland from India about 5 years ago. I work for an investment management company &  live in Edinburgh with my family. I am one of your well-wishers and supporter of an Independent Scotland.
 Like many of us, I am also sad due to the decision of Ineos’s decision to shut down the Grangemouth petrochemical plant. I understand that the future of Grangemouth refinery is also uncertain.
Grangemouth is Scotland’s most important Industrial complex; I have head estimates that more than 10 thousand indirect jobs depend on it. It’s very important to Scotland especially the central Scotland. We don’t want that place to be turning into another deprived area like some ‘former’ mining community.
The situation does appears to very grave, I also see this as an historic opportunity to the ‘Yes’ Campaign especially the SNP.  Yes. An opportunity that can shape the history, the history of Independent Scotland.
If SNP gets this issue right under your leadership, and brings about to an amicable solution to the crisis, it has potential to lead the ‘Yes’ campaign to victory.
I would recommend the following strategy. Nationalization should not be the first choice. If we do that we will be creating a liability rather than an asset for the future generation.
Start looking out for potential bidders. You may have even have to look beyond Europe for potential bidders.  May be you should take on the Chinese supported Ineos with some Indian or Russian oil oligarch.  There are people who can turn around failing businesses in a successful and efficient one.
Take the example of Jaguar Land Rover, it was acquired by the Indian company Tata motors at the depth of recession.  The automakers were cutting down production and shutting down plants.  The company came with the promise of not closing any plants.  The company is a great turnaround story.   They are one of the largest and a consistent employer in the last 5 years.  The employees of Jaguar Land rover are happier and more secure than ever.
The Tatas does not have experience with petroleum; Reliance is a better fit because of the background in petro-chemical industry. Reliance Industries runs the world’s largest refinery at Jam Nagar in India.
 We need to understand that 'Its not that case Ineos is not interested in the plan when it is ready to commit £ 250 Million' additional capital.  Its just playing hardball in return expecting more concessions. Bringing in potential bidders will strengthen the Government stand at negotiation table with Ineos.
If these potential bidders become owners then they can be promised small short-term governmental help but larger longer term incentives to get their long term commitment in the area.
Additionally, I would recommend that you send your best team in the cabinet (& party) to be there in the impacted community at this hour. The people there should know that your team is  there for them, when they need them. 
Neither nationalization nor bailout (similar to the one for banks) is needed now. A good potential investor, who can turn around the company, is what we need.  
For Robert Bruce ‘battle of Bannockburn’ was major turning point, it was also turning point in the History of Scotland.  It made the Scotland independent from England.  It’s not mere co-incidence that Bannockburn is located near Grangemouth.
I think the current moment is like ‘Battle of Bannockburn’, it can change the course of the campaign and the future of Scotland.  As many would agree, the Grangemouth victory is needed before the ‘Yes’ vote victory in the referendum.


Monday, May 27, 2013

The murder on the street that shocked the nation

Last week, Briton witnessed a murder in the streets of London that shocked the entire nation.
As someone from India that was devastated by Islamic terror for centuries, I was not particularly surprised by the act that came out of the troubled side of Islam.  In this negative incident, what stood out positively to me, was the social consciousness of the Brits.

When the barbarians were on the butchering spree, there was a woman (a mother of two) who stood up to them and asked them questions. I salute her courage and social consciousness.

The British government did not hesitate to label the act as terror (it was nothing less than terror). As someone from India, I have seen the 'secular' Indian government struggling to make such bold and correct statements when faced with heinous terror strikes. 

The two barbarians responsible for the murder made 'clear statements that their Islamic faith' was behind  their motives.

The 'Muslim council of Briton' urgently made the following statement 
-   No cause justifies this murder
 -  A barbaric act that has no basis in Islam and we condemn this unreservedly
 - Vast majority of British Muslims acknowledge armed forces for the work they do
  - Calls for calm and unity in all communities.

The above statement was a positive gesture from the Muslim community.

I have seen never seen a Muslim organization disowning and condemning a Islamic terror act in India. For your information, India is the the second largest Muslim populated country in the world (after Indonesia).

The way in which the news in the west was covered was also very different from the way it would be covered in India. The news reporters were not hesitant to call 'a spade a spade'.

Anyway,  it is very unfortunate that someone walking on the street is being murdered by 2 barbarians because they had a different belief system.

Reponse to the FT Article 'India Faces a choice between tolerance and governance'



India Faces a choice between tolerance and governance - by Gurcharan Das on Financial Times Monday 27/May/2013
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The following is the letter to the Editor of Financial Times.
The author seems to the have a strong leftist (can also be read communist) background carrying a huge 'secular' luggage (an aversion for the word Hindu).  The author also tries to generalise his personal preference over an inexperienced and incompetent Rahul Gandhi, as if its a public opinion.
I come from the southern state of Tamil Nadu. BJP hardly wins any parliamentary seats in that state. Even for someone like me Modi is an obvious choice. What India needs today is an able administrator like Modi and not a inexperienced joker like Rahul.
I am even surpised how even people are even able to compare Modi with Rahul as if there is a comparison. Its like comparing the light from bright afternoon Sun with a light from hand held Torch .

The author seems to completely disconnected from the public opinion (or) desperately trying to falsify it.  The author seems to be having a obsession with the secularism. Congress has consistently damaged India by appeasing minorities in the name of Secularism.  'India is secular only because its a Hindu Nation'. Not because congress is ruling it.  If the author 'properly' reads the history of India, he will realize that the parts of India where Hindus become minority, have got separatist tendencies or even got separated from the nation.
People like us (a large number of them-sufficient enough to elect Modi as prime misiter) do not carry the same 'secular' luggage like the author and are very comfortable and even looking forward to a effective leader like Modi governing India.


Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Briton becoming more and more isolated in Europe


Yesterday (March 5th, 2013),

Briton got isolated again within the EU, on bank bonus cap issue.  Chancellor George Osborne's proposals were rejected with vote count of  26 to 1 .

Even during the last  year's EU budget cap issue, Briton had a tough time finding partners to support its case of limiting the EU budget.

At the End of December 2011, the EU visit David Cameroon ended in a similar way, when Briton was isolated in opposing the changes to EU Treaty.

It is very clear that Briton is becoming more and more isolated in Europe.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Response to FT article - India's 'bumble bee' defies gravity

Dear David,

I recently read your article titled "India's 'bumble bee' defies gravity” published on Financial Times dated February 16th 2012. Here are some of the after thoughts that I wanted to share with you.

The front page of ‘Financial Times’ referred this article with the reference 'Undependable India'. That description was quite damaging. I do not agree with that. India has been an open democracy with the much open market for the last 2 decades. If today's India not dependable, then a communist China or an ex-Soviet Russia is more dependable to the capitalistic world is it?

Unlike the west, India does not have the ‘sophisticated’ incarnation of bribing called ‘lobbying'.
India is not a banana republic as you quoted somebody’s words in the article. It’s the largest democracy in the world. You should also understand that India is still trying to recover from devastation of the centuries of external aggression. It is a country where the national reconstruction is still under progress. The western world would interpret the word 'National Reconstruction' as ‘a contract to rebuild a country’s infrastructure after bombing that country . The 'National Reconstruction' that I am referring is a much deeper meaning. If a country is under continuous external aggression for centuries, the society would become rigid & selfish and divided. Rebuilding such fractured society into a vibrant nation is what I am referring as National Reconstruction’.

India is perhaps the most capitalistic country in the world today. We don't run ‘Government Motors’ (GM can also be called that way). We don’t have to bail out banks, insurance companies and mortgage agencies. We don’t have a large 'per capita external debt' that we cannot grow out of. Countries with those characteristics are the undependable ones, you never know when they will go 'bust'.

I personally feel that Vodafone should have been asked to pay the tax that was due ($2.9 billion) & that verdict was wrong. It has also sets a wrong precendence.

Other hand, the mentioned court verdict on the 2G spectrum case is a very positive one. Even during the court proceedings the corporate executives who tried to bribe were behind the bars. The judgement to cancel 2G licenses sent a very loud & clear message that 'if your company thinks that it can get a favourable deal by influencing the government, that deal may not last for ever'. Isn't it a positive message? It is. Especially for the people of India who have been let down frequently all the 3 pillars of Indian democracy (executive , Legislature & Judiciary)

It might not be positive for European companies like Bofors / BAE, (or even American companies like 'Enron' ) which are used to bribing governments to get business deals.

Business deals & asset valuations are not written 'on stone’. They should be re-negotiated with changing circumstances.

I don't agree with the cry that decision like this will impact 'Foreign Direct Investment' into India. ‘The verdict has not singled out any foreign companies. What is even more important is that ‘the foreign companies are NOT treated specially’ like the case of Vodafone.

Even if the 'so called' foreign direct investment dries up, it’s not a big deal for India. The statistics on foreign direct investment in India shows that the FDI is 'very little' compared to the investments derived from savings of Indians themselves. Most of the foreign money coming is the name of investment is 'hot money' chasing the stock market, which you cannot consider as long term capital investment.

You will not hear these opinions neither from the Indian businessmen in the cocktail parties that you attend / nor from the regular Indian English media. It is the voice of strong and vibrant, resurgent India.

Thanks for your closing remarks in the article. I am quoting it again, 'If India had a strong government, less corruption and more policy visibility', just imagine how high it could fly'.

with regards
Arul Krishnamoorthy
4mythoughts.blogspot.com

Monday, February 06, 2012

India pays for oil imports from Iran in Rupees

It is a major break through that India has worked out a Rupee based payment strategy with Iran for its oil imports.

The nuclear sanctions from the West (especially U.S) are irrelevant to India. It is an established fact that 'Abdul Qadeer Khan' was running a 'nuclear walmart' and was supplying technology to Iran, Libya & North Korea. Perhaps God knows (sorry Allah knows), who else bought the technology from that 'nuclear walmart'. Did U.S impose any sanctions on Pakistan. NO.

U.S does not import any oil from Iran. That's one of the reasons for sanctions. There will not be any 'oil shock' for them. That's not the case for India, which import 12% of its oil from Iran.

If Iran is a threat, what about Saudi Arabia. It has one of the most militant forms of Wahhabi Islam. It is not just a co-incidence that '16 out of the 19 hijackers' of 9/11 were from Saudi. Osama bin laden was from Saudi. Will U.S impose oil sanctions on Saudi Arabia.? NO. It will not becuase it is second largest oil supplier to the U.S. To protect this oil interest, the 2500 member Saudi royal family is protected by U.S troops.

So, the oil sactions are irrelevant for India, even if it gets the blessing of the United Nations. U.S acts to protect its own interest, similary India should protect its interests too.

The actual brighter side of the payment agreement is mode payment being Rupee. This was done to beause the current Euro based payment that go via Turkish banks will get blocked due to new sactions. The deal is for 45% of the oil imports from Iran totalling about $ 5 billion.

It is not just $5 billon worth of oil that India has managed to buy, but also the '$5 billon U.S Dollars that India did not have to buy'. (or an equivalent billons of Euros that India did not have to buy).

China also imports oil from Iran. India & China more import oil than all of Europe combined (second only to U.S). If both these countries start paying with their own curencies for their oil imports, just imagine the impact for U.S dollar & Euros. The key demand for these currencies in the form of oil payment will get reduced. The above currencies will take a bigger impact and Indian Rupee will appreciate against them.

A stronger currency is good for stronger India. I fully understand the compulsions with which this payment arrangement was made. Irrespective of the sanctions, I think India should try to push for Rupee based payments for oil imports, for India's own benefit. This was one of the developments that i forecasted ( yes. not a wish list anymore ) in my earlier 'letter to Mr. Soros' ( http://4mythoughts.blogspot.com/2012/01/letter-to-soros.html ) . I am glad it has started already started happening. Thanks U.S, for the oil sanctions imposed on Iran.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Letter to Soros

Dear Mr Soros,

Yesterday ( 26th Jan 2012), CNBC covered your speech at Davos with your quote ‘the Heavily indebted countries that now are in a position of a Third World country that it is too heavily indebted in a foreign currency.’

Knowing you from some of your work, I was quite surprised to hear the term ‘Third world’ from you.

The term 'third world country' was created in the days of the cold war to denote that countries that neither subscribe to Capitalistic nor Soviet models. The term is generally used with the negative connotation as they were poorer. Not only the term is out-of-date since the Soviet era is over, but also ‘We have only have one world, whether some people like it or not’ . We all share it with others with other inhabitants of this planet.

The term ‘developing nations’ could have been a better alternative. Especially given your background in nurturing open societies, the mentioned term was not expected out of you.

I am a citizen of India. I neither like my country referred to as ‘Third World ‘ nor any other country referred that way.

Secondly, coming from the developing part of the world, we don’t want to be compared with failed nations in Europe for the following reasons:

· The current state of the poorer countries and the developing nations can be attributed to the external aggression and colonial rule from Europe that plundered them. But these western nations that are getting bailed out their own bad governance. These nations simply failed to live within their means.

· We are hardworking people and not ‘hardly working’ category that live on government hand-outs in Europe

· We don’t run the huge governments (that even overtake soviet models in some cases) that nurture entitlement culture in the name of social welfare.

Coming to the third part and the most interesting part of the statement, i.e. ‘owning debt in foreign currency’.

The above scenario is not favourable to the borrower because the borrower cannot manipulate the currency in which the debt is ‘to be’ paid off. Majority of the western nations today enjoy the ‘skewed model’ for own in debt in their own currency. It’s not only the whole model is skewed in the borrower's favour but also the mountains of debt have grown higher than ‘the Alps’. These debt mountains are often described in dollar value, % of annual GDP, etc. But the term that we have not heard much in sovereign debt episode of the current crisis is the ‘per capita debt’. I think the above term describes the magnitude of the problem.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

As of year 2011, the per capita debt of Ireland is 500,000 U.S dollars whereas the per capita debt of Ethiopia is 51 U.S dollars. Let’s keep aside the hypothetical belief that many countries like Ireland will grow out of this mountain of debt and repay it.

What I infer from the per capita debt figures is that ‘if Ireland had to have a fire sale of national assets to pay its debt obligations tomorrow then it will not be very different from the present day Somalia.’ (I don’t have anything against my Irish brothers; I have just picked up a country from the top and bottom of the debt rating list.)

Just because a country is located in the Europe does not mean that it cannot be poor. It is sad that Greece and few other nations that lived beyond its means will default eventually. At the same time, it is also unreasonable to expect the rest of the world to pay their bills.

The current crisis, we have gone from bailing out companies to bailing out countries. Now are we are at the stage of bailing out continents. We need to fix this debt culture before we get stage of bailing out the whole planet.

The current debt levels are not only sustainable for many of the countries, but also they are ‘too big to bail out’.

In addition to current debt, the western economies have bigger holes in their budgets in the form of social security obligations. Their debt problems get more complicated with higher social issues like higher percentage of broken families, alcoholism, falling number of marriages and lower number of children that are born.

If you consider the amount of debt piled up by countries, ‘the rich countries are not really rich and poor countries are not really poor’. The western countries have had their share favourable terms in the international financial & political arena for a reasonable amount of time. I would like make the point by quoting by George Orwell ‘All animals are equal, some animals are more equal than others' from the novel 'Animal farm'. But this trend will not continue for ever,

The countries in the eastern hemisphere will start dictating terms by

· Not deciding to buy any of the debt from the west and can start selling their current debt to the western central banks (that are already actively buying sovereign debt)

· Reducing the forex reserves in currencies by moving to commodity reserves

· Economic unions with local settlements that does not involve western currencies

· The whole concept in which currencies are traded in pairs may change

· - The idea of a reserve currency itself will be challenged (not that just whether the reserve currency is U.S Dollar / Euro)

The next meeting to save the capitalism might not even be anywhere in the western hemisphere (forget about meeting again in Bretton Woods).