On 26th April 2026. The US consumer confidence index data was published. Market did not pay much attention. The headline said it was a 5 year low. Looking at it closer its much worse.
The US consumer confidence has not recovered since Covid. That is actually worrisome as US is the leading economic engine. Other countries have moved on, looks like the US consumers have not.
Is it really that bad in the US. I would appreciate comments from the people from US.
The following charts give a correlation between the US Consumer Confidence Index, US GDP and the S&P 500.
There is a high probability of US heading in to a recession in the next 2 quarters.
Split into 2 graphs
Look at the oil shock created by the Russia-Ukraine war in the beginning 2022. That resulted in inflation and raise in interest rates spike that we had witnessed over the 2 years from 2023 & 2024.
It's going to repeat again. Interest rate rise and its impact on the global economy may slow things down in the next 2-3 quarters.
Please leave your feedback in the comments.
