Friday, January 23, 2009

The future of American Dollar

Is American dollar worth what it is today? Is the recent rally in the dollar justifiable? What is the near term and long term trend for the dollar? These are some of the common questions that linger around in the minds of some people today. This article is an attempt to explore the possible answers to the above questions.

Fundemental factors:
These are basically factors the develop slowly and have a long-term impact.
  1. National Debt: U.S Treasury department periodically releases the report on countries holding the U.S debt. Even with a momementary glance through the report, you will find out that there are very few countries in the world to whom, U.S does not owe money.
  2. Personal Debt: A statistics that i came across recently suggested that the number of outstanding credit cards in U.S is about 4 times the population of that country. I don't know the validity of the above statement but those who lived in U.S will acknowledge that the above statement is not very far from truth. The 'Credit Crunch is a classic example of the impact of personal debt. The crisis unfolded as 'some individuals' failed to make their mortgage payments in U.S. (Some people might not account 'Perosnal Debt' as a fundemental factor. But I do because a country is made up of nothing but Individual citizens. 'Personal spending' is also an Economic indicator widely followed by Wall Street.)
Technical Factors:-
These are the result price action in the relavant markets. These have a relatively shorter term impact compared to the fundemental factors.
  1. Crude oil
  2. Commodity consumption
  3. Currency pairs impact
Political Factors:-


(to be continued........)


Related Articles:-
UN team warns of hard landing for dollar
Dollar's Days Numbered; Buy Commodities: Jim Rogers

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

May be the U.S Fed has adopted the Islamic Model of Finance.

Moving a bit too far in Kynesian model that 'the economy' can be fine-tuned like tuning a 'violin' by manipulating the monitary policy, the U.S federal reserve , today annonced a near zero interest rate policy.

May be you might be wondering, whether the U.S has adopted the Islamic model of Sharia law ( interest rates being unethical). As per the U.S Fed, you should be a 'real fool' to save. Spend, Spend and Spend, the U.S is planning to 'spend' its way out of recession.

The interest rates are already near zero, i.e for overnight interbank rate it was only announced today. Even before today's announcement, the 3 month treasury yield has beeing trading with near zero for the past 2 weeks. It closed at zero in 3 out of the past 5 days.

How low can the interest rates go? If the ec0nomy does not recover before the next meeting, will the U.S fed announce negative interest rates?

You might wonder how can there be negative interest rate. here is the explanation: Under the negative interest rate, you need to pay the bank to deposit your money the bank. If you are lucky you will get your principal back. On your bank deposit, the bank will add its own share and pay the borrower. If the borrower wants $100 loan, the bank will pay $105. If at all he wants to repay it, the borrower needs to pay only $100.

All this loans will securatised and branded as 'highly sophisticated instrments' and sold around the words 'Debit default swaps' (like CDS) and sold around the world. There are enough number of idiots the world who will buy these DDS instuments.

If the borrower defaults then the U.S Treasury will buy those 'Toxic Assets' with 'Tax payers money'. I mean the money collected through taxation in foreign countries and invested in U.S Tresury notes.

Wow. What a special form of 'Capitalism'?

So, don't worry, if the U.S Economy does not recover before the next fed meeting, the fed exactly knows what to do?

Saturday, September 20, 2008

HBOS acquried by Llyods TSB

It's natural that the people of Scotland are upset that the 'oldest bank' in Scotland is facing liquidation because 'some folks' failed to pay their mortgages in U.S. 'Bank of Scotland' is the first bank in Europe issue paper currency successfully. It is one the 3 banks in Scotland to print their own notes. May be the new entity will stop this practice.
There were some people who were upset that the new entity (to be called 'Llyods Halifax' did not have word 'Scotland' in the name. Personally i feel, if the name has to reflect all the past aqcuitions it would be 'Llyods TSB Halifax Bank of Scotland', which is too big to be printed on a cheque book. :-)

Is Capitalism at crossroads?

The past week has been a roller coaster ride in the capital markets.
The week started with the 'surprise' announcement in Bollywood style from Bank of America that it had got married to Merrill Lynch urgently over the weekend. The global markets were mourning for the orbituary news of Lehman Brothers. Then there was this debate whether AIG will make it to the prestigious 'Hall of Fame' of 'Too Big to Fail' following 'Freddie Mac' and 'Fannie Mae'. There were detailed coverage on AIG. I was under the impression that AIG stands for American Insurance Group, then I came to know that its 'American International Group'. I never understood the common link between personal insurance, leasing aircrafts and insuring suprime mortgages ( these are some of the AIGs businesses). I have heard 'forward integration' and 'backward integration', i think this a new type called 'no-where integration'. The only thing that I was able understand was that AIG currently has a nasty balance sheet and it did not have enough cash to run the company.

A rating agency (i guess its S&P) was pleading to AIG to raise some cash with in few days. If its some other company they will downgrade it straight away. They can't do it to AIG, since its a big American company and potential candidate for 'too big to fail' royal league. The western financial media was not able to digest even this 'royal' treatment of AIG, they were crying foul that the rating agencies are creating liqudation problems 'big' companies.

The there was the usual blaming of short sellers and 'Cruel' Hedge funds driving 'down the value' of these 'big' companies. Lehman Brothers is a 158 years old company it went public only in 1994. Stock price can make borrowing 'expensive' for the company it can not force a company bankcrupt. Stock price is not the cash flow for a company, borrowings are not cash flow for the company, only revenues are the real cash flow of the company. These troubled financial institutions invested its way to bankruptsy. I think people are forgetting (or perhaps hiding) the very fact the these companies extremely over leveraged ( read mis-managed) that it did not have enough cash to run the company.

Under these troubled times, arranged marriages are becoming more and common in the West (at least in financial markets). Bernake, Paulson & their team (read Fed, Treasury & team) work really hard over each weekend trying to figure-out 'whom' they can get married to 'whom'. 'Purohith' Paulson arranged for the marriage of 'JP Morgan' and 'Bear Stearns' few weeks ago. Perhaps this inspired 'Broker' Brown (in U.K) to arrange for the alliance of 'Loyds TSB' and 'Halifax Bank of Scotland' (HBOS). The way these governments (U.S & U.K) and its agencies are so desparate for these arrangements, it looks as if these are 'Forced' marriages.

Apart from looking for marriage proposals, thursday overnight Fed and ECB 'pumped' billons of currency into the corresponding money markets to ease liquidity issues. The SEC and FSA have come up with the 'Fantastic' idea of stopping shorting of financial stocks. Personally I feel, this decision skews the market in one-direction i.e. only long. As the markets move from 'excess' fear to excess 'greed', will they consider banning long (i.e buying of stocks)?. This argument might sound rediculous to some, but i pesonally feel banning shorting is equally rediculous. Especially in so-called 'matured markets'.

Before the end of the week AIG again made headlines by managing to get some oxygen in 'Trauma Care'.

As I am writing this, In U.S a 'Fabulous' $700 billion bail-out plan is being announced. Maye be Fed would be funding using revenue from the Treasury notes. About 40% of U.S treasury notes are held by foreigners. India's current forex reserve is about $250 billion, China has about a $trillion in reserve. I dont know much of is already made its way to U.S treasuries. But it is certainly a risky investment. As recommended by the 'Tarapore Commission', to safegaurd itself, India should consider maintaining its reserve as commodities rather than foreign currencies. If not 'what happened to investment banks' today can happen to Indian forex investments in treasuries.

We never know. May be every thing will be fine after 1 or 2 years or may be Capitalism is at the crossroads? God Bless America.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Book Review: Alai Osai

Book Title: Alai Osai (Tamil)
Author: Kalki Krishnamoorthy
Publisher: Saradha publication.

The story happens in the context of the period preceeding Indepedence. It describes the mindset of people during that era.

The author has visited the hindu refugee camps in Delhi to depict the emotions of people driven out of their land that is currently known as pakistan.

The largest exodus in human history took place during the partition of our Bharat. Unlike the abundent literature that describes the Jewish Exodus, there is very limited literature that describes the tragic patition of our motherland. This is the first major work in Tamil that I have come across that gives adequate coverage partition.

When our Hindu brothers in exile were shivering in the refugee tents and experiencing the Delhi's severe winter, Gandhiji was more interested in the protection of muslims in West Bengal. He was stationed in Kavkali in west bengal for this cause. The successive Congress governments also downplayed the suffering of millions of Hindus for the purpose of muslim appeasement.

I am particularly amazed to see a gandhian like Kalki giving a detailed description of Hindu sufferings during patition.

Sunday, August 05, 2007

Book Review: Pooniyin Selvan

Book Title: Ponniyin Selvan (Tamil)
Author: Kalki Krishnamoorthy
Publisher: Saradha publication.

It has been my long term wish to read the works of Kalki. I came across this book in the last Chennai book fair. Since the works of Kalki have been nationalized. There were many publishers.I choose Saradha publications for the competitive price. There were typographical errors in few places, it could have been corrected by the publisher.

Out of all the historical novels written by Kalki,this is the last novel. It's the largest one. It comprises of about five volumes totoalling around 2000 pages.

Amazing book. It takes us back by about 1050 years in time, to the historical period in Tamilagam, when the Chola kingdom was the dominant empire. It discribes the power tussle that happened for succession. Unlike the blood bath you find commonly among the muslim rulers in such a scenario, you will see how amicabily it has been resolved.

The Hindu revivalists have been advocating rewriting history. Kalki has set the stage about 40 years ago. If you talk to the generation who are about 60 plus, you will be surprised to know that the craze for reading this novel in those days even surpassed the 'TV Serial Mania' of today. Instead of writing a dull historical document,Kalki has presented it as an excellent novel that has reached wider audience.

We need more such work that cover different periods in our glorious history.
This is an effort that is worth replicating in different Indian languages. If I had read this book in my school days, I might have developed better writing skills and I might have changed my career.

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Definition of the term Hindu

What is the origin of is the word 'Hindu'?
Why is 'Bharat' called as 'India'?


If you have ever wondered about these questions.  here is the answer to the first question ?

There seems to be consensus that the term "Hindu" is the Persian equivalent of the word "Sindhu". It seems in Persian "Si" is pronounced as "Hi". No wonder that the mighty river "Sindhu" that was the cradle of our civilization is used as reference.

Some have hesitation to use the term "Hindu" due to its foreign origin and instead prefer to use the equivalents from our terminology like Sanatana Dharma and Manav Dharma. We should avoid this hesitation since there is always exchanges of words & terminologies between languages. It is a natural phenomenon.

Especially after the advent of Islam, due to its natural intolerance towards other faiths, the Persians who had just converted into Islam started giving abusive meaning to the word "Hindu". These meanings are quoted by the anti-national organizations like "Dravidar Kalagam" in Tamil Nadu. The intolerance of Islam towards other belief systems is the reason behind abusing other faiths. Even if there was another term in place instead of "Hindu" the Islamic intolerance would have tarnished that term too.

"The Iranians used the word Hindu to designate the river Sindhu and the countries and populations situated around and beyond the Sindhu. From Persian, the Greeks borrowed the river name as Indos and the peoples name as Indoi, hence English Indus, India, Indian."[1]

The terms Hindu and Indian were synonymous. Both had territorial meaning. It also denoted the socio-cultural aspects of our people in that territory.

Today, It is strange that the term "Indian" is considered secular and the term "Hindu" is considered communal.

Lot of thought process have gone in defining the term Hindu. Each of those definitions certainly captures major aspects of Hinduism. But none of them seems to be simple and complete. The Belgian Scholar named Koenraad Elst has written a book with title "Who is Hindu?" on this subject. This book has been a great source of information and inspiration in writing for this section even though I differ from the author in few aspects.

My simple definition of the term Hindu is,
"All sampradayas (belief systems) that originated in Bharat including the vanvasi forms".

As per the above definition the different sampradhayas like Vaishnavam, Shaivam, Bauddham, Jainam, Sikh panth and various derivatives of them and all our vanvasi sampradhayas should be classified as Hinduism.

Some of you might feel that the second part of the definition "including the vanvasi forms" is redundant. The reason for explicitly including it is, the legal definition of Hindu in Indian Constitution [2] (and also in the Hindu Marriage Act of 1955 [3]) is more in tune with the above definition except that it excludes the scheduled tribes (Vanvasis).

Why were the Vanvasis excluded?
The general argument put forward for excluding vanvasis from Hindu fold is that 'the tribal worship the natural forms trees, snakes, etc. and hence it is animist nature'.

Sri Golwalkar responds to this argument as follows "These protagonists of separatism argue that these 'tribal' worship things like trees, stones and serpents. Therefore they are 'animists' and cannot be called 'Hindus'. Now this is something which only an ignoramus who does not know the ABC of Hinduism will say. Do not the Hindus all over the country worship the tree? Tulasi, bilva, ashwattha are all sacred to the Hindu. The worship of Nâg, the cobra, is prevalent throughout our country. Then, should we term all these devotees and worshippers as 'animists' and declare them as non-Hindus ?'[4]

Another major reason for the exclusion of vanvasis from the legal Hindu definition may be the the adviser on tribal affairs to Jawarharlal Nehru, Mr. Verrier Elwin is an ex-missionary.

It is worth studying the real motive behind this exclusion of vanvasis from the legal Hindu definition.

Historically, If you look at way Christianity spread in Europe, it initially spread in the cities and moved to rural areas. The converted city folks referred the rural religions as 'Pagan". The Latin root of the word Pagan is Paganus that means rural.

When these Christian historians and sociologists started studying our culture they started classifying on similar basis as urban and rural. They concluded that rural here is nothing but the tribal form and it different from the urban nature of religion. This approach of theirs is wrong.

Instead, We should classify the components our belief systems into 2 major classifications one is the common (or Vedic) and the other the local. The common components can be seen in different parts of the nation where as the local components are specific to that geography. The ratio of these components might vary from location to location (even within the same belief system) but all our belief systems have these these 2 components. For example the 'Kula Theivam" (the god of the heritage) might be different for different sects within the same caste. Since Vanvasi's are more in tune with the nature and their geography, their local component in their tradition will be more. They do have the common components that are seen in other parts of the Nation. As Sri Guruji pointed out, the concept of worshiping trees,snakes itself a national characteristic.

definition-of-term-hindu.htmlVanvasis are an integral part of the Hindu society. I would like to assert this by quoting the words of Sri Rama "We were 4 brothers, we have become 5 including Guha" [5]. Guha is the vanvasi boatman who helped Sri Ram ( with Lakshman and Sita) to cross the river Ganga in Ramayana.

References:-
References:-
1 "Who is Hindu?" by Koenraad Elst. Chapter 2.
2. Article 25 (2)(b) of the Indian Constitution
3. Section 2 of The Hindu Marriage Act of 1955
4. M.S. Golwalkar: Bunch of Thoughts, p.471-472.
5. In Aranya Kandam in Kamba Ramayanam(Tamil). Sri Rama says "Guhanodu Aivaranom".

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Limitations in Indian GDP Calculation Methodology

The central statistical organization that releases GDP data in 2 time series.

1. GDP at factor cost at constant (1999-2000) prices ( for Q3 of 2006-07 this value is 8.6 %)

2. GDP at factor cost at current prices.( for Q3 of 2006-07 this value is 14.1 %)

The first series data receives wider publicity. But it does not take into account the price change in the years after the base year. Similarly it does not take into account the price change before the base year also. Since it does not take into account the price change it does not get affected by inflation. In my opinion, the Whole Sale Price Index (base of 1993-94=100) might not have any impact on the GDP calculation of the first series.

The second series data considers the price change over the years. But the inflationary impact needs to be subtracted from it. GDP deflator is used for this purpose. Since we don’t use that indicator in our country instead i am considering the inflation (based on WPI ). The average inflation for Q3 of 2006-07 is approximately 5.5 (I don't have the exact figures). If you subtract it (from 14.1) the resultant GDP growth will be around 8.6 %.

The following are the possible limitations in the Indian GDP calculation methodology.
1. The effect of inflation might not be fully factored in the second time series described above (The methodology used for calculating inflation itself has some serious limitations.)
2. The Indian economy is not black and white. Most part of the economy is in between the two colours. i.e grey. It will be evident that only about 2% of the population pays income tax. How do you account the good / service that does not have a paper trail from production to consumption?
3. The output of unorganized sectors like Agriculture labourers, construction workers, artisans, house wives are not take into account.
4. There has been a lot of changes in the Indian economy and the world’s perception of India since the year 2000. Income from IT and IT-enabled services have increased significantly. Medical tourism to India has evolved. I don’t think these are accounted for in the GDP methodology.

The GDP methodology was adopted even by U.S as a measure on National output only from the year 1985. Before that, they were using only GNP. We should not be copying the approach from those western nations.

Earlier we had a bunch of economists who were looking at the soviet model for solutions. Now we have economists who are looking at the west for solutions.

In my humble opinion, our economic view and thought process should be indigenous. It should factor-in the ground reality of our nation. That’s what Mahatma Gandhi did during the freedom struggle.

Similarly, every aspect of our economic view, including GDP calculation methodology should be customized for the Indian conditions. Otherwise, it will be just a number that does not have great  correlation with the actual economy.

Note: The central statistical organization does not describe its methodology used for GDP calculation in its website. The above article is based on my current understanding of the process.

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Book Review: Sonia-In the perception of a Nationalist

This book is a collection of articles written by Sri Gurumurthy,Co-convenor for Swadesh Jargran Manch. This book discusses in-detail the background of Antonia Maino(also known as Sonia).

Whenever I raise objection about having a foreigner for the highest office in the nation. There is always some one who asks me in response "Why not?", "What's wrong?", "After all she is also a citizen of this country",etc. If I had come across this book earlier, I would have certainly asked them to read it or atleast would have answered them better.
For me, the only fact that she is a foreigner is sufficient to reject her.
But, It's not just her foreign origin that is the problem. The deeper problem is her loyalty towards this nation.

Among the various facts discussed in this book,you have to know the following about this lady.

1. She remained as foreign citizen for 15 years after entering this county as the wife of Rajiv. Even after giving birth to 2 children in this country, she has renewed her foreigner status twice.That means that for 15 years she did not want to be even called as Indian after living in the home of the then Indian Prime Minister Mrs. Indira.

2. Even after 15 years,her Indian Citizenship application had her Italian name "Antonia Maino". She did not accept the name "Sonia" given to her by her mother-in-law.

3. She fled the nation and took refuge in Italy during the India-Pakistan war in 1971 along with her family. i.e. Rajiv-then commecial pilot also left the country. (During war times the commercial pilots are not allowed to leave the country for obvious strategic reasons).

4.Again in 1977, after the Congress party was defeated in elections after emergency, she took refuge in Italian Embassy. Sanjay & Indira Gandhi went pesonally pleaded and brought her home. (For us, this Nation is our Mother land. But for her, its Mother-In-Law's land. What do we expect from her!).

5.Our RAW Agency was not interested in having liason with the Italian Spies. They thought we dont have common interests and it was waste of time. But under Rajiv's pressure they had to agree for liason. A meeting between Italian spies and RAW was arranged. Guess, who arranged for the meeting from the Italian side. It was none other than our Sonia Antonia Maino. Yes, she had contact with the Italian spies.If you are one among those people who believed that she was just a simple housewife before entering politics. It's time you change that opinion.

6.She never trusted the Indian Agencies for Security. She depended Italian Agencies to arrange for security whenever Rahul / Priyanka were travelling abroad. This happened even when her own sweet husband Rajiv was Prime Minister. The relevant Indian RAW offcials were not even informed. At times, they later found it on their own to their embarassment.

7.The Quatorocchi the prime accused in the Bofors scam case is her family friend. Narasimha rao government just let him escape from India. He has been absconding since then.

This book was published about 3 years ago and it is still more relevant even today. Because Sonia is still in politics and Quatorocchi is still roaming free some where in Argentina.

Friday, March 30, 2007

Is Our Prime Minister Mr. Panneer Singh?

When AIADMK won the majority last time, There was a verdict against Jayalalitha in one of the several cases against her (I think it was TANSI case). So, she had to give up the Chief minister post temporarily. So she selected an obscure MLA from her party to be a place holder for that temporary period. His name was Panneer Selvam! He was never even a minister before.

As many of us are aware of the dominent personality of Jayalalitha. She would have been looking for a more sub-ordinate person (i.e. spineless). The rubber stamp candidate should be harmless, even if it means that the candidate is useless. That's exactly why the Panneer selvam was choosen.

It's another Irony that our Lalu, who was in a similar situation was not even able to find a trust-worthy candidate from his own party.

Maino Antonia (who is also known as Sonia) was in a similar condition, after the last parlimentary elections. The NDA led by the BJP did not have the necessary majority for forming the government. Supporting foreigners has been one of the consistent policies of Communists, so they decided to support the foreign lady for forming a government. There was a strong national sentiment against accepting Maino Antanio(a.k.a Sonia) as the Prime Minister. It still exists even today. So, Maino Antanio had to look for a rubber stamp. Hence, Our Manmohan Singh become the prime minister.

We have been known to misunderstand popularity for capability. Thats why we have been electing film-stars as M.L.As, M.Ps and even as Cheif Ministers. Just because some one has a Phd. from a foreign university, it does not mean that the person is a good administrator.

If you were involved in the hiring process for your company, you would have realized that people with flashy resume doesn't necessarily deliver on the job. Many times they don't even fit the job.

The purpose of this article is to examine what Manmohan Singh has been delivering during his tenure as Prime Minister. Did he make any difference Or did he manage to remain as Mr. Panneer Singh.

.... to be continued

I decided not to continue this article, because writing about Mr. Panneer Singh is not even worth it. 

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Measuring Inflation in India

This article attempts to describe the process of calculating Inflation in India and tries to identify the anomalies in the process.

Inflation is generally calculated based on price indices.A price index is a basket of items with weightage for each item.
We have 2 price indices:
Wholesale Price Index (WPI): Based on whole sale (in some cases Producer's Price) of commodities. This data is available on a weekly basis released by the office of economic advisor to government of India. This department comes under the Ministry of commerce and Industry. http://eaindustry.nic.in/
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Based on the retail prices of commodities. This data is available on a monthly basis released by the Central Statistical Organisation. The department comes under Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation. http://mospi.nic.in/

In India, the Inflation is calculated based on WPI. I feel this approach has the following fundemental flaws.
Apples with Kangaroos
Currrently, the WPI has a base of 1993-94=100 where as the CPI has the base of 1984 - 85 = 100. I dont think they have the common basket of items for the calculation. If we try to compare the WPI with CPI then we will not just be comparing apples with oranges, perhaps we will be comparing apples with Kangaroos. i.e. two entirely differnt things.
(I think the term Kangaroo might better represent the rate of the rapid raise in cusumer prices recently :-))

Responsibility of calculation & Frequency
If both the indices (WPI & CPI) are calculated by the same organization then atleast the approach will be consistent. Both the indices should be available at the same frequency. currently, one is weekly and the other is monthly. In my opinion, monthly frequency for both should be sufficient. After all, most of us buy groceries for our home on a monthly basis.

The final price matters the most
1. Each commodity in the index might be sold to the end customer after going through a series of middle layers before reaching the end customber and with varying profit margins at each layer.
2. When the Wholesale price( or the Producer Price) of a commodity increases the profit margin changes doe not get cascaded uniformly. i.e. each layer will increase the profit margin differently and usually the margins increase towards the end of the chain.
3. The final consumer price can differ due to government subsidies, sales and excise taxes, and distribution costs.

Assuming that the WPI & CPI are comparable (currently they are not), if we try to plot them on a single graph as overlays then the gap between them will never be uniform in a given resonable period of time. What i am trying to say is that WPI does not properly represent (i.e no uniform correlation to) the price paid by the consumer.

I think inflation is meant to measure the additional burden to the consumer. If it fails to do that then it defeats the whole purpose of the exercise.

The inflation number for last week was around 6%. I would be happy, if our Finance minister could name a single commodity whose end price increased only by 6% the past one year.

I think the reality is much worse that what is being presented. I think we are having Real annual inflation of atleast 10% - annualized for the past 4 years. If we include housing cost inflation rate will be much higher. This will be (and should be) an issue at the upcoming elections.

Monday, July 10, 2006

Humour: The Roach Hunt

( The article was written by me in the middle of 2003:, but posted in to blog only in 2006 )

This Story is real and the characters in this story are not fictitious. There were 3 Hindu brothers living in an apartment in Tustin, CA. One day, a few unpaid guests started appearing in their house. They were none other than Roaches. Our broad-minded Hindu brothers welcomed them and gave them food and accommodation. The visitors to the apartment called these roaches PESTS. But our Hindu brothers did not want to offend the feeling of the roaches, so they called them PETS.

These roaches were highly Americanized; you can see romantic roaches even in public places like kitchen counters. These roaches were very active in procreation. Their numbers grew by leaps and bounds. They bred like MUSLIMS. Soon there were packets in Hindu Home, where the roaches were in majority. When you look at the history of Hindustan, whenever people of other religious faiths become the majority, those parts got separated from Hindustan. A similar incident happened, the roaches formed The Roach League and started demanding Roachistan from Hindu Home Land. The roach leader ‘Roachinna’ was heading the separatist movement.

Our Hindu brothers called for a baithak. They realised the need for action. They went to Ralphs (Supermarket) and bought a roach spray and attacked the roaches. But their action was in vain. The roaches ran into their hidden bunkers behind the kitchen cabinets. Their procreation continued and they continued to grow in geometric progression. In the kitchen and Bathroom, they became the arithmetic majority. So, the roach leaders started calling those places West Rochistan and East Roachistan. There were fidayeen attacks on innocent Hindus. Whenever the Hindu brothers opened the kitchen cabinets 2-3 roaches fell on their faces. To defend our Hindu brothers followed the technique of "Dhwe Patha Prathe sara".( i.e they opened the kitchen cabinet doors and ran 2 steps back.). The fidayeen attacks continued. Unattended cereals were towed away by the roaches. Angry roach mobs attacked toor dal and sooji mix and made them inedible. Innumerable Hindu properties were attacked.

Our Hindu brothers again called for a baithak. They decided to seek help from older Hindu brothers in the neighborhood. They contacted an older Hindu brother. He advised them to keep their home neat and clean. He also advised them that they should do it consistently on a daily basis like Sadhana. Our Hindu brothers immediately decided to become Sadaks. Another older Hindu brother gave a detailed bowthik. He told them the issue of termites is non-terminating. i.e the roach population can be minimised but it can't be abolished. He also told because of the jihadi attitude of the roaches, there will be a clash of civilizations on the face of this earth. He also feared that these roaches might someday overtake the Hindus. But, our Hindu brothers did not lose heart after hearing all these. They are Sadaks now. They again called for a baithak. They might be living away from the heart of the Hindu renaissance but their hearts are filled with Hindu renaissance. They decided to make any kind of sacrifice to save the Hindu homeland. They roared " No more partition by the roaches, no more co-existence". There was a "Hum Sadak Ban Gaye" Vyakthi geeth at the end of the baithak.

Next day, they went to the nearest Home Depot and got a fuming pesticide, and opened it in the apartment. The whole apartment became a Gas Chamber. As per the instructions found on the pesticide, the Hindu brothers had to leave the apartment for 2 hours. Our Hindu brothers became homeless like Kashmiri pandits. The park at the intersection of Bryan and Red Hill Ave became their refugee camp. They came back to their home after 3 hours. The house looked like Ahmedabad. There were dead roaches all over the place. Somebody said that some of the roaches that survived the gas chamber had escaped to a faraway community where the roaches originated called "Roach Arabia". And thereafter the Hindu brothers lived in Peace in the Hindu homeland.

Statutory Warning and Legal Disclaimer: After reading the above story, if the reader feels that Gas Chamber is the solution to the Muslim problem. Then it is entirely the opinion of the reader and the author is not responsible for it.

Thursday, May 04, 2006

Can Muslims be democratic?

The article was written  by me in the beginning of 2004:, but posted in to blog only in 2006:
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In the wake of the second gulf war, U.S initially referred this operation as Iraqi Occupation. As the task  of forming an international coalition that supports the military action in Iraq become harder, for marketing purposes, U.S changed its phrase to Iraqi Liberation. They changed their statements, stating that the Iraqis were suffering under the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein and after overthrowing him, a democratic government will be installed.

 I was wondering whether such a thing is possible. As a citizen of India, I am aware of the fate of  democracy in neighbouring Islamic states. Can Muslims be Democratic?  This article is an effort to find an answer to this question by investigating the political nature of Islam.

Sample Space: The study is based on the countries with Muslim
majority. For the purpose of quantifying the term majority, I consider the
countries whose population is composed of 70% or more of
Muslims are Islamic countries.






S.No.



Country Name





Demographics





Background





Current Governance




1.



Afghanistan





Sunni Muslim 84%
Shiate Muslim 15 %
Others 1%



Land of Taliban



After U.S overthrew
Taliban government, a fragile government is in place with the
support of American troops.

2.

Albania




Muslims 70%
(Mostly Sunni and about ¼
belong to Bektashi, supposed to be a unorthodox and ”tolerant “
sect)

Albanian Orthodox 20%


Roman Catholic 10%

The Communist government outlawed
all religions in 1967, making Albania the world’s first
officially atheist country. Places of worship were closed, church
property was confiscated, religious services were banned, and
religious practitioners were persecuted. The ban on religion was
lifted in 1990. 

Emerging Democracy




3.




Algeria



Sunni Muslim 99%

Jewish and Christian 1%




French colony for more than a

century before gaining independence in 1962.



Radical Islamic group

called Islamic salvation front (FIS) gained popularity in late
80’s and early 90’s. FIS’s military wing Islamic salvation
Army became stronger that resulted insurgency that claimed more
that 100,000 lives between in the last decade.



4.



Azerbaijan



Muslim 93.4%, Russian Orthodox
2.5%,
Armenian Orthodox 2.3%,
others 1.8%
(1995 est.) 

note:
religious affiliation is still nominal in Azerbaijan; percentages
for actual practicing adherents are much lower

Former soviet republic



Infant democracy.

In November 1995, first elections
were held with restricted number of opposition parties. The UN
observers reported about the unfair election process.




5.




Bahrain




Shia Muslim 70%
Sunni Muslim 30%



Was under British control until 1971.



Monarchy
Ruled by Al-Khalifa family who are
Sunni Muslims.

6.




Bangladesh

Muslims 88%
(Mostly Sunni)
Hindus the reminder 12%
With small population of Buddhists and Christians.



Since the nation’s
formation in 1971, the government of Bangladesh has undergone many
changes. A secular parliamentary form of democracy was established
by the 1972 constitution, but it was suspended in late 1974 and
replaced in January 1975 by a presidential form of government. The

1972 constitution, as amended, was suspended again in 1982 after a
coup d’état. A ban on political activities was rescinded
and the constitution reinstated in 1986.



Infant democracy.

In February 1991 a parliament of
300 members was elected; 30 additional seats were subsequently
filled by indirect ballot. Constitutional provisions abolishing

presidential government and restoring a parliamentary democracy,
headed by a prime minister, were approved by parliament in August
1991 and ratified by popular referendum in September.

7.




Comoros



Sunni Muslim 98%, Roman Catholic 
2%



Unstable Comoros has endured 19
coups or attempted coups since gaining independence from France in
1975.



In 1997, the islands of Anjouan
and Moheli declared their independence from Comoros. In 1999,
military chief Col. AZALI seized power.

8.



Djibouti




Muslim 94%, Christian 6%



The French Territory of the Afars and the Issas became Djibouti in 1977. Hassan Gouled APTIDON
installed an authoritarian one-party state and proceeded to serve
as president until 1999. Unrest among the Afars minority during the 1990s led to a civil war that ended in 2001 following the
conclusion of a peace accord between Afar rebels and the  Issa-dominated government.



After 20 years of Autocratic rule,

democratic process has been in place recently.



9.




Egypt

Muslim (mostly Sunni) 94%,
Coptic Christian and other 6%




10.





Gambia


Muslim 90%, Christian 9%,
indigenous beliefs 1%




The Gambia gained its independence
from the UK in 1965; it formed a short-lived federation of  Senegambia with Senegal between 1982 and 1989. In 1991 the two
nations signed a friendship and cooperation treaty. A military coup in 1994 overthrew the president and banned political
activity, but a 1996 constitution and presidential elections,
followed by parliamentary balloting in 1997, completed a nominal
return to civilian rule





The country undertook another

round of presidential and legislative elections in late 2001 and

early 2002. Yahya A. J. J. JAMMEH, the leader of the coup, has

been elected president in all subsequent elections.





11.




Guinea



Muslim 85%, Christian 8%,

indigenous beliefs 7%



Guinea has had only two presidents
since gaining its independence from France in 1958. Lansana CONTE
came to power in 1984, when the military seized the government
after the death of the first president, Sekou TOURE.



Guinea did not hold democratic
elections until 1993 when Gen. CONTE (head of the military
government) was elected president of the civilian government. He
was re-elected in 1998 and again in 2003. Unrest in Sierra Leone
and Liberia has spilled over into Guinea on several occasions over
the past decade, threatening stability and creating humanitarian
emergencies.





12.






Indonesia





Worlds largest Muslim country (by population)
Muslim 88%, Protestant 5%, Roman

Catholic 3%, Hindu 2%, Buddhist 1%, other 1% (1998)





The Dutch began to colonize
Indonesia in the early 17th century; the islands were occupied by Japan from 1942 to 1945. Indonesia declared its independence after Japan's surrender, but it required four years of intermittent negotiations, recurring hostilities, and UN mediation before the
Netherlands agreed to relinquish its colony.



The transition to
popularly-elected governments after four decades of
authoritarianism




13.



Iran




Shi'a Muslim 89%, Sunni Muslim 9%,

Zoroastrian, Jewish, Christian, and Baha'i 2%




Known as Persia until 1935, Iran became an Islamic republic in 1979 after the ruling monarchy was
overthrown and the shah was forced into exile.



Clerical forces established a
theocratic system of government with ultimate political authority
nominally vested in a learned religious scholar.

14.



Iraq



Muslim 97% (Shi'a 60%-65%, Sunni
32%-37%), Christian or other 3%



Formerly part of the Ottoman Empire, Iraq was   occupied by Britain during the course of World
War I; in 1920, it was declared a League of Nations mandate under
UK administration. In stages over the next dozen years, Iraq attained its independence as a kingdom in 1932.



A "republic" was
proclaimed in 1958, but in actuality a series of military strongmen ruled the country, the latest was SADDAM Husayn.




15.



Jordan



Sunni Muslim 92%, Christian 6%
(majority Greek Orthodox, but some Greek and Roman Catholics,

Syrian Orthodox, Coptic Orthodox, Armenian Orthodox, and

Protestant denominations), other 2% (several small Shi'a Muslim

and Druze populations) (2001 est.)



For most of its history since

independence from British administration in 1946, Jordan was ruled

by King HUSSEIN (1953-99).




Recent democratic elections were

held.









16.



Kyrgyzstan



Muslim 75%, Russian Orthodox 20%,
other 5%

Former Soviet Republic



Infant democracy.

17.



Kuwait



Muslim 85% (Sunni 70%, Shi'a 30%),
Christian, Hindu, Parsi, and other 15%



Britain oversaw foreign relations
and defense for the ruling Kuwaiti AL-SABAH dynasty from 1899
until independence in 1961



Monarchy




18.



Libya



Sunni Muslim 97%



From the earliest days of his rule following his 1969 military coup, Col. Muammar Abu Minyar
al-QADHAFI has espoused his own political system, the Third Universal Theory. The system is a combination of socialism and
Islam derived in part from tribal practices and is supposed to be
implemented by the Libyan people themselves in a unique form of
"direct democracy."



Dictatorship that organizes state
sponsored terrorism.





20.



Mauritania



Muslim 100%




Independent from France in 1960, Mauritania annexed the southern third of the former Spanish Sahara
 (now Western Sahara) in 1976, but relinquished it after three years of raids by the Polisario guerrilla front seeking independence for the territory. Maaouya Ould Sid Ahmed TAYA siezed
power in a coup in 1984. Opposition parties were legalized and a new constitution approved in 1991. Two multiparty presidential elections since then were widely seen as flawed, but October 2001
legislative and municipal elections were generally free and open.



A bloodless coup in August 2005

deposed President TAYA and ushered in a military council headed by
Col. Ely Ould Mohamed VALL.





21.



Morocco



Muslim 98.7%, Christian 1.1%,
Jewish 0.2%



A protracted independence struggle with France ended successfully in 1956.



Emerging Democracy.
Gradual political reforms in the
1990s resulted in the establishment of a bicameral legislature in 1997.

22.



Oman




Ibadhi Muslim 75%, Sunni Muslim,
Shi'a Muslim, Hindu



In 1970, QABOOS bin Said Al Said ousted his father and has ruled as sultan ever since.




Monarchy




23.



Pakistan



Muslim 97% (Sunni 77%, Shi'a 20%),
Christian, Hindu, and other 3%



The separation in 1947 of British India into the Muslim state of Pakistan (with two sections West
and East) and largely Hindu India was never satisfactorily resolved, and India and Pakistan have fought two wars - in 1947-48 and 1965 - over the disputed Kashmir territory.



Dictatorship



24.



Qatar

Muslim 95%



Ruled by the Al Thani family since
the mid-1800s



Monarchy




25.



Saudi Arabia



Muslim 100%



A very strong form of Islam known as Deobandi is majority.



Monarchy.
Ruled by the custodian of the holy mosques. (otherwise known as the king)

26.



Senegal



Muslim 94%, indigenous beliefs 1%, 
Christian 5% (mostly Roman Catholic)

Independent from France in 1960

Democracy




27.



Somalia

Sunni Muslim

One of the poorest ethnic states

Anarchy

28.



Sudan

Sunni Muslim 70% (in north),
indigenous beliefs 25%, Christian 5% (mostly in south and
Khartoum)

Military regimes favoring
Islamic-oriented governments have dominated national politics
since independence from the UK in 1956.

Dictatorship.



29.



Syria

Muslims 90% Sunni Muslim 74%,
Alawite, Druze, and other Muslim sects 16%, Christian (various
sects) 10%, Jewish (tiny communities in Damascus, Al Qamishli, and
Aleppo)

republic under military regime

since March 1963




Dictatorship




30.




Tajikistan




Muslims 90% Sunni Muslim 85%,
Shi'a Muslim 5%, other 10% (2003 est.)

Former Soviet Republic




With civil war from 1992-1997, the country is struggling to strengthen its infant democracy.

31.




Tunisia



Muslim 98%, Christian 1%, Jewish
and other 1%



Following independence from France
in 1956, President Habib BOURGUIBA established a strict one-party
state

One Party system.




32.




Turkey



Muslim 99.8% (mostly Sunni), other
0.2% (mostly Christians and Jews)



After a period of one-party rule, an experiment with multi-party politics led to the 1950 election
victory of the opposition Democratic Party and the peaceful transfer of power.



Fragile Democracy.
4 military coups so far.



33.



Uzbekistan



Muslim 88% (mostly Sunnis), Eastern Orthodox 9%, other 3%

Former soviet republic



Dictatorship.



34.

United
Arab Emirates



Muslim 96% (Shi'a 16%), Christian,
Hindu, and other 4%



Federation of 7
states, Abu Zaby (Abu Dhabi), 'Ajman, Al Fujayrah, Ash Shariqah
(Sharjah), Dubayy (Dubai), Ra's al Khaymah, Umm al Qaywayn

Democratic




35.



Yemen

Predominently Muslim

The southern Yemen had a Marxist orientation. This resulted in internal war
between north and south Yemen for 20 years.


The list of Muslim countries might not be exhaustive but even scanning the above list will give you the social and political nature of Islam. Democracy represents freedom of thought. Freedom of thought is not an attribute of Islam. So, You can imagine the probability of success of U.S initiative for brining in democracy in Iraq and even in Afganistan.